Method correction · 9 September 2026. These are archived exploratory results, pending a rebuilt decision ledger. The legacy outfield score uses goals and assists; the goalkeeper score uses minutes. Neither establishes defensive or goalkeeping quality. Cost percentiles do not establish value for money. Euro Deal Alpha has been withdrawn because its monetary conversion is unsupported. Original experiment outputs remain preserved.

Grade 1 · pre-registered · 1,722 decisions · big five, 2017/18–2022/23

Historical club scorecards — exploratory archive

Recorded outcomes ranked within the original window, position, market-value and destination-tier pools. These scores describe the selected historical sample; they are not validated recruitment grades. The original Grade 1 experiment and later exploratory layers have different registration status.

Intervals describe sampling uncertainty under the legacy method. Of 79 clubs, 8 intervals exclude 50 before accounting for multiple comparisons. An interval containing 50 does not establish equivalence to random recruitment; an interval excluding it does not establish scouting skill.

The scorecard

Legacy score = median within-pool outcome percentile. Hit = share clearing the original success threshold. Cost = median fee percentile, excluding unpriced deals. These are separate descriptions; combining their ranks does not measure economic efficiency. Euro alpha is withheld pending a valid valuation method.

#	Club	Lg	n	Grade 1	95% CI	≠ 50?	Hit	Cost pct	α€ m	α€/100m
1	SC Freiburg	L1	11	79.0	35–89	no	36%	44	withdrawn	—
2	Montpellier HSC	FR1	17	78.1	61–89	above	71%	42	withdrawn	—
3	Borussia Mönchengladbach	L1	11	77.3	25–89	no	46%	40	withdrawn	—
4	RB Leipzig	L1	15	71.9	46–91	no	53%	45	withdrawn	—
5	Stade Brestois 29	FR1	16	69.0	25–88	no	38%	18	withdrawn	—
6	1.FC Köln	L1	11	68.8	35–89	no	36%	44	withdrawn	—
7	FC Girondins Bordeaux	FR1	9	68.2	34–79	no	33%	57	withdrawn	—
8	Paris Saint-Germain	FR1	26	68.0	53–82	above	42%	50	withdrawn	—
9	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	L1	17	67.7	34–86	no	47%	49	withdrawn	—
10	Stade Rennais FC	FR1	26	66.7	50–74	no	42%	71	withdrawn	—
11	Borussia Dortmund	L1	22	66.4	41–86	no	46%	31	withdrawn	—
12	LOSC Lille	FR1	18	65.6	30–81	no	44%	83	withdrawn	—
13	Olympique Lyon	FR1	22	64.2	32–80	no	32%	41	withdrawn	—
14	Atalanta BC	IT1	29	63.6	43–86	no	38%	50	withdrawn	—
15	Manchester City	GB1	21	61.1	34–82	no	43%	82	withdrawn	—
16	Olympique Marseille	FR1	29	60.3	40–77	no	45%	42	withdrawn	—
17	Wolverhampton Wanderers	GB1	24	60.0	43–75	no	38%	58	withdrawn	—
18	Liverpool FC	GB1	17	59.1	23–81	no	47%	60	withdrawn	—
19	1.FC Union Berlin	L1	19	58.9	38–78	no	16%	41	withdrawn	—
20	Arsenal FC	GB1	28	58.8	50–76	no	46%	52	withdrawn	—
21	Real Sociedad	ES1	15	58.6	17–76	no	47%	44	withdrawn	—
22	OGC Nice	FR1	20	58.0	31–71	no	30%	66	withdrawn	—
23	AS Monaco	FR1	31	57.7	42–68	no	32%	50	withdrawn	—
24	RC Strasbourg Alsace	FR1	18	57.5	35–78	no	50%	43	withdrawn	—
25	Torino FC	IT1	29	57.4	35–74	no	28%	40	withdrawn	—
26	Eintracht Frankfurt	L1	27	57.1	37–77	no	26%	26	withdrawn	—
27	Inter Milan	IT1	34	56.8	39–73	no	32%	40	withdrawn	—
28	Bologna Football Club 1909	IT1	25	56.0	36–71	no	36%	58	withdrawn	—
29	Newcastle United	GB1	29	55.6	50–73	no	41%	71	withdrawn	—
30	UC Sampdoria	IT1	19	54.5	39–72	no	16%	55	withdrawn	—
31	VfL Wolfsburg	L1	17	54.2	41–85	no	29%	50	withdrawn	—
32	US Sassuolo	IT1	21	53.6	44–65	no	19%	57	withdrawn	—
33	RC Lens	FR1	10	53.1	16–77	no	30%	62	withdrawn	—
34	Rayo Vallecano	ES1	8	53.0	17–63	no	12%	53	withdrawn	—
35	AC Milan	IT1	31	52.8	38–75	no	36%	50	withdrawn	—
36	Tottenham Hotspur	GB1	27	52.5	37–63	no	30%	57	withdrawn	—
37	Hellas Verona	IT1	21	51.7	37–69	no	19%	39	withdrawn	—
38	West Ham United	GB1	23	50.0	21–61	no	39%	77	withdrawn	—
38	Bayern Munich	L1	23	50.0	29–68	no	22%	26	withdrawn	—
38	Brentford FC	GB1	9	50.0	17–78	no	11%	77	withdrawn	—
38	Udinese Calcio	IT1	21	50.0	31–68	no	38%	73	withdrawn	—
38	Stade Reims	FR1	17	50.0	31–77	no	6%	45	withdrawn	—
38	Real Betis Balompié	ES1	22	50.0	31–68	no	23%	39	withdrawn	—
44	Levante UD	ES1	10	48.9	11–75	no	10%	38	withdrawn	—
45	Juventus FC	IT1	34	48.8	32–63	no	29%	59	withdrawn	—
46	FC Augsburg	L1	15	48.1	45–82	no	27%	61	withdrawn	—
47	SSC Napoli	IT1	28	47.9	36–73	no	25%	45	withdrawn	—
48	Aston Villa	GB1	22	46.6	25–63	no	18%	68	withdrawn	—
49	Associazione Sportiva Roma	IT1	37	46.0	30–60	no	32%	59	withdrawn	—
50	Villarreal CF	ES1	26	46.0	27–68	no	31%	38	withdrawn	—
51	RCD Mallorca	ES1	8	45.8	13–95	no	62%	41	withdrawn	—
52	Brighton & Hove Albion	GB1	16	45.1	26–58	no	19%	80	withdrawn	—
53	Hertha BSC	L1	13	45.0	36–54	no	23%	60	withdrawn	—
54	Chelsea FC	GB1	32	44.3	32–62	no	28%	75	withdrawn	—
55	Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.	IT1	23	44.2	29–78	no	44%	46	withdrawn	—
56	VfB Stuttgart	L1	8	43.1	32–62	no	25%	35	withdrawn	—
57	Southampton FC	GB1	9	42.9	22–74	no	22%	83	withdrawn	—
58	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	L1	17	42.3	18–73	no	35%	24	withdrawn	—
59	Valencia CF	ES1	30	42.0	23–55	no	30%	43	withdrawn	—
60	Celta de Vigo	ES1	16	41.7	25–62	no	25%	58	withdrawn	—
61	FC Barcelona	ES1	31	40.9	35–50	no	32%	70	withdrawn	—
61	Real Madrid	ES1	15	40.9	22–54	no	27%	59	withdrawn	—
63	Atlético de Madrid	ES1	29	40.0	19–50	no	28%	27	withdrawn	—
64	Crystal Palace	GB1	14	39.6	13–58	no	29%	67	withdrawn	—
65	Leicester City	GB1	14	39.0	22–76	no	36%	68	withdrawn	—
66	1.FSV Mainz 05	L1	17	38.9	17–81	no	35%	43	withdrawn	—
67	Everton FC	GB1	32	38.1	20–54	no	28%	61	withdrawn	—
68	Getafe CF	ES1	30	35.9	20–60	no	23%	45	withdrawn	—
69	FC Nantes	FR1	20	35.8	20–79	no	35%	46	withdrawn	—
70	Sevilla FC	ES1	42	34.8	26–42	below	24%	36	withdrawn	—
71	FC Empoli	IT1	14	33.3	12–65	no	21%	42	withdrawn	—
72	AC Monza	IT1	9	32.4	14–53	no	11%	44	withdrawn	—
73	Nottingham Forest	GB1	14	31.8	12–48	below	0%	58	withdrawn	—
74	AS Saint-Étienne	FR1	9	30.6	6–84	no	33%	38	withdrawn	—
75	ACF Fiorentina	IT1	33	28.8	20–47	below	24%	44	withdrawn	—
76	Manchester United	GB1	23	28.6	24–46	below	30%	75	withdrawn	—
77	Fulham FC	GB1	8	27.4	17–48	below	25%	75	withdrawn	—
78	US Lecce	IT1	9	17.5	13–72	no	11%	42	withdrawn	—
79	Genoa CFC	IT1	14	16.7	8–45	below	0%	14	withdrawn	—

Exploratory clusters — not validated recruitment intent

Four clusters were fit to pre-transfer features. Reported subsample ARI (0.96) measures partition stability, not whether these names capture recruitment intent. Choosing four clusters also used observed outcome differences. The medians below are sample descriptions, not separate zero-skill benchmarks.

Tranche	Meaning at signing time	n	Median Grade 1
WIN-NOW	proven starter, paid up	461	57.7
GAMBLE	unproven, still paid up	297	56.5
VALUE-VET	proven, acquired cheap	491	46.1
FILLER	unproven/unused, near-free	460	39.2

Differences between these groups may reflect price, data coverage, opportunity and the outcome definition. The lower observed score for young players does not by itself quantify methodological bias or establish their correct benchmark.

What the corrected method must address

Position-specific measurement: comparing defenders only with defenders does not make goals and assists a measure of defending.
Coverage: missing prior statistics and incomplete destination seasons exclude decisions non-randomly. Report both decision and spend coverage.
Context: destination-tier matching does not prove that player quality, coaching and opportunity have been separated.
Economics: use comparable fees, wages, obligations, holding periods and resale. A high fee percentile alone is not overpayment.
Forecast evidence: the tested P-1 models did not establish a robust out-of-sample edge. This does not establish that no other model or club can have one.
Reconciliation: row overlap is an inventory check. Corrected dates require recomputing each affected outcome and pool.

Changelog

v1.0 — 2026-09-02. First public release: 1,722 pre-registered Grade 1 decisions, 79-club scorecard, fitted tranches, Deal Alpha, sensitivity battery S1–S3, legacy P0a↔F2 overlap check (1676/1722 rows exact).
2026-09-09 correction: unsupported verdicts and euro alpha withdrawn; corrected decision records, position-specific outcomes and comparable financial commitments are required before new grades.

Historical provenance: Grade 1 pre-registration experiments/f2-grade1-preregistration.json + addenda; later layers were exploratory · outcome definitions frozen in the P-1 operational addendum · harness 23b53dca… · legacy universe overlap check 2026-08-31; outcome reconciliation pending · worked example with every pool named: the Juventus ledger.